Business Scenario Planning

Business Scenario Planning-34
, continues, “Innovation opportunities are the result of changes or shocks in the environment.In the program, we ask executives to come up with plausible future scenarios that include some of those changes.Underpredicting is a narrow restriction of future possibilities.

, continues, “Innovation opportunities are the result of changes or shocks in the environment.In the program, we ask executives to come up with plausible future scenarios that include some of those changes.

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Prior to Scenario Planning, much military planning was done in ways similar to the Impact Analysis techniques,where the future was assumed to be very similar to the present.

That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.” Scenario Planning is a planning technique originally developed in the 1950s to help the military better plan for unexpected changes.

I’ve already put a slide together on the scenarios we generated as a group in the program, and my team will be using it to initiate and frame a strategic discussion.

We need to formulate strategy with these scenarios in mind.” But Gelinas explains that scenario planning is just one of the takeaways of the program.

But it’s also, as Margaret Beckett points out, about strategy; it’s a hedge against crisis management,” notes Roch Parayre, managing director of Decision Strategies International.

“It’s hard to see through the fog in today’s highly complex, contradictory world.

Impact and Uncertainty are qualitative measures, so you should decide on your own scoring scale.

Whatever scale you use, be sure that you are consistent in your relative scoring for each driver. After scoring, you can now group your potential drivers into three categories based on their two scores: Critical Uncertainties are, obviously, the most important and what you should use to construct your scenarios!

But in the artificial, extreme worlds of scenario planning, strategic implications of possible future realities become very clear.” Issue: You want to move from constant, crisis-management reactivity to strategically planned proactivity.

Solution: Use scenario planning to envision and plan for possible future changes that can create opportunities for innovation.

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